The “Juice Loosener” No Vig Calculator

SportsIntensity’s Juice Loosener — no-vig odds calculator. Until now, this was the only way to squeeze the juice out of your odds.

  1. Step 1. Enter every outcome from the same market.
  2. Step 2. See the estimated fair odds with the juice removed.
  3. Step 3. Check an available price and compare the methods.

How to Use the Juice Loosener No Vig Calculator

Enter the odds for every possible outcome from the same market at one sportsbook—both sides of a two-way bet, or home, draw and away for a three-way soccer bet. Juice Loosener removes the bookmaker’s margin to estimate fair odds.

For example, suppose BookMaker offers the Chiefs at −150 and the Bills at +130. Enter both teams and their odds. Using the default method, Juice Loosener calculates the Bills’ no-vig fair line at +138.

Now suppose Bovada offers the Bills at +150. Select Buffalo under “Is your price better?” and enter +150. That beats the estimated +138 fair line: a $100 winning bet would earn $150 profit, compared with $138 at +138.

Add your stake to see the estimated expected profit or loss. Using BookMaker’s market as the benchmark, a $100 stake shows $5.04 in estimated expected profit—a 5.04% expected return. This represents an average across repeated bets at those odds and estimated chances, rather than the payout from one bet.

Put your odds in

One complete market. Every possible outcome.

TRY AN EXAMPLE

Use every outcome from the same sportsbook and moment, with matching lines and settlement rules. Examples are illustrative, not live prices.

Which prices belong together?

Use mutually exclusive outcomes that cover the whole market. For a single-book benchmark, use every price from the same sportsbook at the same moment. Do not mix Over 44.5 with Under 45.5, or regulation-only results with overtime-inclusive results.

For soccer 1X2, include the draw. For futures, include every listed contender and any “other” outcome. Omitting runners distorts the calculation. A sum below 100% can mean an incomplete market, stale prices, or prices mixed across books; it does not prove an executable arbitrage.

If the wager can push and return the stake, the displayed fair probabilities are conditional on a non-push. The optional price check can include your own push-probability estimate. Half wins, half losses, dead heats, and partial voids are not modeled.

The juice, loosened

Estimated fair odds · Proportional method

2 OUTCOMES
Total implied probability—All entered outcomes added together
Overround—Excess above 100% · S − 1
Theoretical margin—Normalized margin · 1 − 1/S

These are estimates from your reference prices and chosen method, not verified win probabilities. Theoretical margin is not a sportsbook’s realized profit. Display rounding does not feed back into the calculations.

Is your price better?

Optional: compare another offer with your estimated fair line.

Push probability and settlement

Use 0 for a market without a push. For a full-stake refund, EV = (1 − push probability) × (fair probability × decimal odds − 1). Both the reference market and offer must share the same settlement conditions. The calculator cannot infer the push probability from two quoted prices.

Offer prices must include any costs you want reflected. Exchange commissions are not automatically applied. Changing currency changes the label only; no conversion takes place.

Compare all four methodsSee how much the assumptions change the result.
Estimated fair probabilities and prices by method

The range is method sensitivity, not a confidence interval. For two outcomes, Shin and additive are mathematically equivalent; their agreement is not independent evidence. Unavailable methods are excluded and identified below.

Show the calculationYour inputs, the formula, and the numbers behind the result.
What each method assumesA quick guide to choosing and interpreting a method.

Proportional: divides every implied probability by their total. It removes the same relative share of margin from each outcome. A transparent baseline, but it does not account for favorite–longshot bias.

Power: finds an exponent k so that the probabilities raised to k total 100%. On an overround market, it removes a larger relative share from longshots and stays inside 0–100%.

Additive: subtracts the same number of percentage points from each outcome. It can produce zero or negative probabilities for longshots. Those results are rejected, not clipped.

Shin: models a bookmaker responding to an assumed fraction of informed bettors. Its parameter is a model assumption, not evidence of insider activity. A nonnegative solution is unavailable for an underround. For two outcomes it agrees with additive.

A useful estimate still depends on a credible, timely reference market. A favorable comparison is conditional on that estimate being accurate; no method establishes a guaranteed advantage.

Method reference: Clarke, Kovalchik & Ingram, Adjusting Bookmaker’s Odds to Allow for Overround (2017).

KEEP THE NUMBERS.

Copy a result or share these inputs and settings.

Manual inputs · Calculated in your browser · No account required
Shared links preserve your entered prices, not live quotes. Mathematical estimates only. 21+.