Of all the articles included in this series, this is by far the most ambitious. Betting on sports. That could mean betting your son will win next Saturday’s Pee Wee football game or it could mean the average passing distance of all the players in Monday night’s football game will come out to more than 47 yards. Learning to bet on sports is a lifetime goal that is never really perfected.
And that’s because there’s a ton of people out there who are trying to figure out new ways to get you to lose money when betting on sports. One Vegas old timer used to always carry an acorn in his pocket he had filled with lead. He also made a point of keeping a very good “liars poker” bill in his wallet. Anytime the conversation lulled at all, he had some proposition to offer. He might bet he could throw an acorn over the top of a building. Most of us would take him up on that bet, not knowing he was going to switch the acorn he picked up from the ground for the one in his pocket, a sure winner. Another famous con man used to love to bet horsemen that he could outrun them on their horses (back in a time when most everybody in Vegas arrived on horseback). The deal was he got to pick the track, and they got to ride their horses as hard as they’d like. He made a fortune “picking” tracks that consisted of two posts set 10 feet or so apart. You had to run over to one, swing around it and back to the other one 30 or 40 times. He did it easily, while a horse quickly decided this “quick turnaround” stuff was for the birds (and nimble footed humans).
The point I’m making, actually, is the #1 cardinal rule you MUST always remember if you plan on betting at sports. DON’T EVER bet against a man playing his own game. If I bet you $1000 that I can walk on water, you better believe I’ve already made sure the lake was frozen over. If it weren’t for gaming commissions and other watchdog groups, casino gambling would fall into this category. If they could get away with it, don’t you think you’d be playing against machines that couldn’t possibly win without some operator’s permission?
Unfortunately, most of sports betting is done quietly and probably illegally. This opens the door for all kinds of cons and set ups. Always make sure there are no “extra bits” hidden in the clauses. Betting that this weekend’s golf tournament will be won by Tiger Woods sounds like a fairly safe bet, unless the person you’re betting against happens to know Tiger Woods just fractured his arm in a skiing accident. Unless you really know the person you’re betting against (and even then, only if a limited amount of money is involved) be extremely weary of sports betting against relative strangers and strange relatives. There’s a very lucrative business going on out there selling ghost holdouts (machines that’ll feed a card into your hand from under your sleeve) and marked cards “for educational purposes only”. It’s estimated that the lion’s share of the crooked gambling going on around the country all takes place among “friends” playing poker in a living room somewhere.
So be cautious about gambling, but once you do, here’s what to look for:
There are always two variables involved in betting on sports. There’s the question of odds, and there’s the question of handicaps. In a game where the odds are exactly even (like flipping an ungaffed coin), you should technically be betting even money (both parties should be betting the same amount). If, however, you’re betting you can roll a 5 with one roll of a six sided dice, a “fair” bet would be for your opponent to give you 5 to 1 odds (which is precisely what the odds against you are). Basically, for every $20 you put on the table, your opponent should be putting down $100. Eventually that bet would even itself out. Statistically you are going to roll 5 times and not win (losing $20 each time, or a total of $100). On the 6 th time you’re going to win $100, making everything balance out.
In sports this “evening of the odds” takes place in several ways. If the Podunk Texas Basketball Superstars typically lose to the Arkansas Lawmen by around 15 points, it might be a fair bet to give you a “15 point spread”. Basically, unless they lose by 16 or more points, you still either tie or win your bet. Or you could make the same adjustment by creating unequal bets. You can offer $90 and your bookie can offer to pay $100 if your team wins. One is a point spread while the other is a bet spread.
With all this said, sports betting is typically a question of information brokering. The more you know the better the odds are in your favor. The fact that a team has won the past 50 games it’s played should throw up a red flag for anybody who knows anything about sports betting. NOBODY wins that consistently unless they’re playing in extremely favorable conditions. They may be a pro team that’s never played another pro team. They do fine against all the high school teams they’ve played, but Friday’s game will be against a team that has rated in the top ten among adult teams. They may seem like the underdog, but once all the information is in, they’re the hands on favorite. Typically people assume that if a team has made it to the finals, they must be among the best. Don’t go there (unless you’re simply betting a nickel or two). Find out who they were scheduled to play all season. Find out if any of their opponents actually offered a challenge for them, or if they just happened to luck out with a bunch of bad opponents. Where is the game being played? Are the Florida Goldfishes playing football on a frozen field in Montreal? The Montreal Showoffs may have a great advantage if they grew up playing on frozen back yards. How have the individual players been playing? Is the quarterback just getting back from a visit to the detox center? Are the players in Kansas in the middle of a dispute with their owners that might reflect on their ability to stay focused on the game?
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